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Published November 8, 2012
What would life be like without coffee?
In a world that drinks 1.6 billion cups each day, the prospect probably gives a lot of us the jitters. But a new study led by London's Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew, warns that, thanks to climate change, the most consumed coffee species, Arabica, could be extinct in the wild by 2080.
Calm down; things aren't quite as black as you might think. The study is about wild coffee plants, while the stuff in our cups is brewed from their domesticated descendants. Still, wild losses leave cultivated crops genetically vulnerable to a host of enemies, which could ultimately lead to lower quality and higher prices for coffee consumers.
"Arabica's history is punctuated by problems with diseases, pests, and productivity problems—and growers have always gone back to the wild and used genetic diversity to address them," said Aaron Davis, head of RGB Kew's coffee research program.
There are only two main types of cultivated coffee, Arabica (which comes from the wild plant Coffea arabica) and Robusta (derived from Coffea canephora). But there are more than 125 species in the wild, with more still being discovered, said Davis, who has been researching coffee plants for 15 years.
"That's one of the things that really surprised me when I first started working with wild coffee," he said. "I mean, here's this immensely important crop, and we don't even know what all the species are yet! And among all those wild species, there are certainly useful genes."
Arabica's Shaky Future
Arabica is the backbone of the coffee industry, accounting for 70 percent of global production, according to the International Coffee Organization. But most of it can be traced back to a handful of plants taken from Ethiopia in the 17th and 18th centuries, Davis said, and its narrow gene pool makes it "very susceptible."
The new study, led by Davis and published in the journal PLOS ONE this week, combined field observations and computer modeling to envision how different climate scenarios could affect wild Arabica species. It focused on Ethiopia—the birthplace of cultivated Arabica, and Africa's largest coffee producer—as well as parts of South Sudan. (Explore an interactive map of the effects of global warming.)
The prospects are "profoundly negative," the study concluded. Even in a best-case scenario, two-thirds of the suitable growing locations would disappear by 2080—and at worst, nearly 100 percent. And that's factoring in only climate change, not deforestation.
Davis and other researchers visited South Sudan's Boma Plateau in April, intending to assess the feasibility of coffee production there. Instead, they discovered wild Arabica plants in extremely poor health.
"After a week or so in those forests, we realized that our objective had changed: It became a rescue mission," Davis said.
The study recommends that specimens from the Boma Plateau should be preserved in seed banks as soon as possible, because the species could be extinct as soon as 2020.
Arabica typically grows in the upper zones of vegetation on tropical mountains, explained botanist Peter Raven, who was not involved in the study. Because such species are already living on the edges of ecosystems, the plants have nowhere to go when temperatures rise. (See "Plants 'Climbing' Mountains Due to Global Warming.")
"The kinds of cloud forest climates where Arabica is native are disappearing, and the plants and animals that occur in them are going to be among the most threatened on Earth," Raven said. "Most coffee production throughout the world will be in trouble as the climate shifts."
In Ethiopia, the world's third largest producer of Arabica coffee, the mean annual temperature has risen by 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.3 degrees Celsius) since 1960, according to a report by the United Nations Development Programme. (Interactive map: "Earth's Changing Climate.")
Previous studies have established that both wild and cultivated Arabica are very climate sensitive, thriving only within a very narrow range of temperatures, Davis noted.
"So even if you do some very simple sums, it doesn't take much to realize that there's an intrinsic threat to these species from accelerated climate change," he said. "The logical conclusion is that coffee production will be negatively impacted as well."
Taking Action
The purpose of the study isn't to scare people, Davis said, but rather to inspire action.
"We're trying to understand: What if we don't do anything—what will happen? And what can we do about it now?" Davis said. "If we're proactive, we can avoid a dire situation."
The study identifies several "core sites" where wild Arabica can likely survive until at least 2080, and recommends that these areas be targeted for conservation.
Conservation activities have helped other species avert extinction, Davis said, so he remains optimistic about the future of wild coffee. Raven, however, takes more of a cup-half-empty view. While the goal of preserving plant species in the wild is "laudable," he said, seed banking is extremely important even in areas where extinction is not yet imminent.
"Regardless of what measures are taken in nature, we can confidently, and sadly, expect the genetic diversity of those populations to go downhill steadily year after year," said Raven. "Seeds from the most genetically valuable species should be stored now, before it is too late."
(Pictures: "Doomsday" Seed Vault Safeguards Our Food Supply.)
An Acquired Taste
Robusta—a hardier coffee domesticated in the 19th century in response to a leaf rust epidemic that decimated Arabica crops in Southeast Asia—is mostly used in stronger brews like espresso and Turkish coffee. It can grow at lower altitudes and higher temperatures, so it's somewhat better poised to cope with climate change.
(Related: how climate change could affect seafood supply.)
But that doesn't mean most coffee drinkers would simply switch what's in their cup without sputtering, Davis said.
"I can guarantee that we will not all be happy just drinking Robusta," Davis said. "As the name suggests, it's quite strong. Most people don't like the taste, and it has up to twice as much caffeine as Arabica. It's simply not the same drink. If we lost Arabica, I think large segments of the coffee market would disappear."
(Viet-coffee promotes Vietnamese Robusta blends as an enjoyable quality cup of coffee contrary to this articles statement)Such a shift could cause a serious economic jolt: According to the International Coffee Organization, coffee is the second most traded global commodity after oil, and the industry employs about 26 million people.
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Welcome to the second installment in our series Chemistry of Coffee, where we unravel the delicious secrets of one of the most widely consumed drinks in the world. Here we look at how tweaking variables can make the difference between a velvety smooth coffee or a scalding, bitter mess.
It’s hard to get a bad coffee these days. Plenty of baristas have fine-tuned the process of making espresso, but really there are only a handful of variables they can control:
Coffee roasters and barista schools have produced many impressively complex charts plotting grams of coffee against volume of water overlaid with concentration and yield. In the middle is the ideal weight/ volume/ concentration yield target for the perfect cup of coffee.
(Of course, if you prefer a latte, cappuccino or flat white, the milk is a whole other story.)
Here is a little graphic of my own that I will use to describe what happens when we change our four variables.
On the horizontal axis we have relative time, on the vertical axis the numbers represent amount. The curves are extraction profiles.
Caffeine is very water soluble and the vast majority of the caffeine is extracted early. The volatile oils, which give coffee its complex flavour and aroma, extract more slowly. The organic acids, which make coffee taste bitter, are extracted the most slowly of all.
So let’s go through each of our four variables in turn.
The coarseness of the grind and the extraction time are inextricably linked. The finer a coffee is ground, the more surface area there is. Conversely, the larger the grind, the smaller the surface area.
Let’s consider the two ends of the extreme. If we grind coffee as fine as talcum powder we have maximised the surface area available for extraction. Therefore, we can very quickly extract the target compounds – but perhaps too quickly for some people’s tastes.
Turkish coffee is very finely ground and boiled. This produces a coffee which is very strong and bitter and because of the fineness of the grind often contains a lot of suspended solids (muddy). The finely ground material may block filters too, causing the extraction to go on for too long – or not allow the water to pass through at all.
At the other end of the spectrum, let’s consider whole coffee beans. Of course, given enough time, we can extract unground coffee. This is quite wasteful of the coffee beans because the hot water may not penetrate all the way to the interior of the bean, so we throw away unextracted material.
Obviously, the optimum grind (coarseness) is somewhere between these two extremes, where we match the residence time of the hot water (flow rate) across the ground coffee beans with our ideal caffeine/ volatile oil/ organic acid ratio.
If you get a cup of coffee produced from a quality bean but it is too weak and insipid, the coffee may have been ground too coarsely. If the coffee is unacceptably bitter, perhaps the grind is too fine, with too-high levels of organic acids being extracted.
Let’s hold all of our variables except temperature constant and see what happens. As with our coarseness experiment let’s consider the two ends of the extremes.
Temperature strongly influences solubility and rates of extraction. Yes, you can extract coffee with ice water. The three curves on our graph above get pulled to the right, so given enough time we can extract a decent cup of coffee. Cold brew coffee is made this way – ground beans are placed in cold water and allowed to “brew” in the fridge for up to a day.
The solubility of caffeine is moderately affected by temperature and the solubility of the organic acids is strongly affected by temperature. We would expect that a coffee brewed using this method would be lower in caffeine and much lower in bitterness than a coffee brewed using hot water.
Now, let’s extract our coffee using boiling water. The curves on our graph get scrunched up on the left-hand side. Everything gets extracted much quicker and the margin for error becomes much smaller if we try to limit bitter organic acid content.
Another complicating factor is that our volatile oils are just that – volatile. If we boil coffee, our flavour and aroma compounds get carried away in the steam. This can produce a coffee that is weak in taste, yet high in caffeine and organic acids.
Let us keep our coarseness, temperature and water-to-coffee ratio variables constant and only consider the time variable. If we consider the ideal cup of coffee is one that has maximum caffeine and maximum volatile oils while limiting the bitter organic acids, we would consider 4 on our arbitrary timescale to be just about perfect.
If we only extract to 2 on the timescale we will have a coffee high in caffeine but weak, or underdeveloped, in flavour, aroma and bitterness. If we extract for too long, say to 8 on our timescale, our coffee will contain high amounts of organic acids, which can make it unacceptably bitter.
This brings us to our coffee-to-water ratio – perhaps the most subjective of all our tests. Too little coffee and even with all our variables optimised the coffee will taste weak. Too much coffee and the resulting brew will be too strong and overpowering.
This ratio depends on choice of extraction method:
The generally accepted rule of thumb for the coffee-to-water ratio is approximately 10g of coffee to 200mL of hot water. One heaping tablespoon is about 15g, give or take a gram or two.
So there you have it. Optimise the coarseness of the grind, match this with the water temperature and the extraction time and make sure your coffee-to-water ratio is in the right ballpark. Or you can go down and visit your friendly local barista, have a chat, and let them do the thinking for you.
Note from Hugh: In the case of Vietnamese coffee this is why a phin works so well - lower the temperature and the margin around bitter organic acid extration is pushed over to the right allowing for a smoother cup with less bitter and less 'damage' to the volatile oils that end up in your cup and not boiled away. -
Good reason to get your new pin today - best prices with free delivery for the two up offer
Don Brushett does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.
Southern Cross University is not a member of The Conversation and does not financially support the project. Find out more.
The Conversation is funded by CSIRO, Melbourne, Monash, RMIT, UTS, UWA, ACU, ANU, ASB, Baker IDI, Canberra, CDU, Curtin, Deakin, Flinders, Griffith, the Harry Perkins Institute, JCU, La Trobe, Massey, Murdoch, Newcastle, UQ, QUT, SAHMRI, Swinburne, Sydney, UNDA, UNE, UniSA, USC, USQ, UTAS, UWS, VU and Wollongong.
Consumers pay a premium for specialty products, in theory supporting higher wages for farmers. But it will take more to make these markets truly sustainable. Viet-Coffee only deals with companies it feels demonstrate ethical Practice in developing growers and or pricing
Little of that higher-than-normal price is making its way into the pockets of farmers.
That belief is underscored by stories and photos lining the walls of
the shops that sell such goods, or stamped onto packages, depicting
subsistence farmers who have been given a lifeline out of poverty by
your addiction to medium-roast Yirgacheffe. Similarly, socially
conscious consumers will often opt to purchase products that are
certified organic or fair trade, believing that these products go
farther to support farmers than their non-certified counterparts.
Unfortunately, the emergence of specialty product segments in commodity markets like coffee and chocolate has not dovetailed with a rise in the quality of life of farmers producing the raw materials of those products. That’s not to say that specialty products are not helping at all, just that various market forces need to shift in order to make these markets work better for farmers.
“I’m not convinced that there is yet a model that works comprehensively,” said Simran Sethi, an expert on agricultural biodiversity and author of the forthcoming book “Bread, Beer, Chocolate: The Slow Loss of Foods We Grow and Love.”
“The ones that support superior quality are good from the perspective of sustaining heirloom varietals that support biodiversity and sustain unique flavor profiles, but that means a significant amount of a crop will be rejected in order to sustain that quality. Farmers have bumper seasons and they’re subjected to every variability – weather, climate, politics, transportation. Most of the cost and risk is still going to be absorbed by the farmer.”
Peter Giuliano, director of the Specialty Coffee Symposium, an industry conference put on each year by the Specialty Coffee Association of America, says the specialty coffee industry is generally concerned about this issue. “At a recent symposium, one of our members stood up and asked: ‘We pay farmers more money for quality, but does that actually translate to a bottom-line better livelihood for them?’” he said.
“The answer we came up with was maybe not, we don’t know, more research is necessary. And that’s essentially where we’re at as an industry. We believe in the idea that better quality coffee, better sustainability, and a better life for farmers can go hand in hand, but systematizing it is a challenge.”
Once a commodity, always a commodityA big part of the challenge for these markets is the fact that their prices are more or less set by commodity markets. Coffee is priced according to the coffee commodity market price (“the C market” as those in the industry refer to it). That price was set about 100 years ago to help stabilize the price of coffee, which had historically been fairly volatile, for coffee roasters.
“It did a really good job of that and it has been the dominant pricing mechanism for coffee ever since,” Giuliano said. “And that can be useful for farmers, too, because they can theoretically buy coffee futures and hedge like anyone else. So market theorists tend to think it’s good that the commodity price drives the coffee market.”
According to Giuliano, problems arise out of the underlying assumption inherent to commodity pricing: that all products within the market are interchangeable. Those problems are compounded by the fact that what’s driving the commodity price up and down may have nothing to do with the coffee market itself.
“Theoretically a specialty coffee company could work with the C price and just say this higher quality coffee is worth the C price plus a dollar,” Giuliano explained.
“But the things driving the commodity market are not necessarily the same things driving high-quality coffee farming. Then, there’s been a lot more activity in the C market recently from people not in the coffee trade at all, who are just using the market to speculate, and they benefit from market ups and downs that aren’t necessarily reflective of supply and demand or beneficial to those of us in the coffee trade.”
While the coffee and chocolate markets are not at all the same thing, commodity pricing has wreaked similar havoc on producers in both industries. On the chocolate front, the issue is how poorly the commodity market reflects retail supply and demand. Even when the commodity price does reflect what’s happening on the ground, it can unfairly affect some more than others.
According to Shawn Askinosie, founder and CEO of Missouri-based craft chocolate company Askinosie, the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa will affect the price of cocoa if it reaches Ghana or the Ivory Coast, where roughly 70% of the world’s cacao is grown. “It will affect the global price even though there’s no direct effect of supply in Ecuador or the Philippines.”
Beyond these sorts of issues – inherent to any sort of global commodity market – is the fact that demand for chocolate has been increasing rapidly over the past several years, with demand for dark chocolate at a 20-year high, but the commodity price has remained low.
“You look at that situation and you think: what the heck is gonna make that price go higher if higher demand doesn’t?” said Askinosie. “That’s where you get to thinking it’s never going to change, because you’ve got Cargill, Mondelez, Nestle, Hershey’s, Mars – all the big players want to keep that low price, and yes, you will find discussions and conferences and papers written about sustainability plans and efforts to help the farmers and that’s great. But really the market just needs to pay more.”
Weathering market forcesBreaking free of commodity pricing, however, is not simple. In the coffee industry, even specialty roasters who deal directly with their suppliers have to take the C price into account when they’re crafting those deals. “If the market goes sky-high, it can be very tempting for a producer who has a fixed rate locked in with a roaster to ‘lose’ some product in order to sell it at the higher price to someone else,” Giuliano explained.
“And it happens in the reverse too: if the market drops, suddenly a roaster might be rejecting product for quality reasons so that they can replace it with a lower-cost option. In most cases that won’t happen, but it’s important to include mechanisms in your contract that eliminate the temptation.”
Moreover, specialty coffee roasters still base the price they pay some producers on the C market price, and even if they’re paying 200% higher, the farmer may be barely eking out a living.
On the chocolate side, it’s more a question of the market’s willingness to pay for quality product at scale. Despite the craft chocolate boom, the poorer quality but higher volume-producing cacao plants are a safer economic bet for producers.
“The crops with the highest yield of cacao can transform the life of a farmer, but it tastes nothing like chocolate,” Sethi said. “Some of it is OK, a lot of it is awful. But the market doesn’t reward quality, so even the farmers growing heirloom cacao plants tend to also grow a commodity crop as a back-up, or they are farmers who had capital to begin with and can afford to just grow heirloom.”
The commodity chocolate crops are also typically less sustainable. They’re often grown in full sun to increase volume, but this also increases the potential for weeds and disease, which in turn increases pesticide use. Until the market rewards sustainability, social responsibility and quality, however, that’s not likely to change.
“I used to be such a very strong proponent of fair trade and organic, but now after visiting farms in Africa and South America, and speaking with a lot of people involved in specialty coffee and craft chocolate, I’ve realized that it’s more nuanced,” Sethi said. “You see it in Central America with ‘la roya’ – coffee leaf rust – and there are these cases where a farmer has paid for organic certification and then they’re in danger of losing their whole crop to this disease if they don’t spray. They have to decide whether to save the crop or save the certification.”
“These aren’t people who went to Ivy League schools and later decided to get into farming, these are people who can’t afford medicine for their children,” Sethi added. “There are very real concerns right now about hunger in these communities, and there is no fallback profession.”
Although the experts agree that fair trade certification initially helped to raise awareness around the injustices suffered by farmers, particularly those in developing countries, no expert interviewed said they thought the label is effectively addressing the problem it set out to solve. Nor does either certification or direct-trade alone seem to be the solution.
“There are people closing these gaps through direct trade efforts but there is no oversight there so, ultimately, the consumer has to trust the story on the label or website,” Sethi said. “Areas where certification schemes do exist are laden with bureaucracy which means that farmers or co-op managers are forced to re-allocate resources (time and money) toward achieving and maintaining that certification which is, for many smallholder farmers, an impossibility.”
Askinosie said that while he appreciates what fair trade standards did to bring awareness and change around social and environment issues for farmers, at this point the label has become “a victim of its own good marketing.”
“Consumers buy it and feel like they’ve done a good deed, and the unfortunate reality is that the farmer doesn’t end up with a lot more money because of the intended goodwill of consumers,” he added.
Instead, those hoping to change these industries are betting on a mix of direct relationships between farmers and manufacturers, and new business models that help to distance specialty products from commodity prices.
Michael Jones, co-founder and CEO of coffee collective Thrive Farmers, is the architect of one such model. Jones jumped ship from the biotech industry into coffee 10 years ago when a trip to Costa Rica opened his eyes to injustices in the coffee industry.
“It was amazing to me that you’d have coffee selling for $80 a pound in Japan and yet the farmer was only making $4 a pound,” he said. “As a guy who didn’t come from that industry I couldn’t get away from the fact that coffee is worth more now than it’s ever been, there’s more consumption of and more demand for coffee than ever in history, and yet the farmers are in some cases making less per pound than it costs them to produce.”
In an attempt to fix that model, Thrive has signed on a network of small farmers whose beans it sells to various roasters and retailers throughout the world. Thrive pays producers a fixed percentage of the wholesale price it gets for selling their beans (75% if they sell the beans green and 50% if the beans are sold roasted), and Jones said that price stays relatively stable year over year, so farmers can better predict what their income will be.
Thrive has also helped to tackle another key issue with the coffee market: the fact that many producers don’t know exactly how much it costs them per pound to produce coffee. Giuliano said that has made it difficult to determine what the wholesale price (and thus the retail price) per pound needs to be in order for specialty coffee to be sustainable. But perhaps the most important shift in the Thrive model is the fact that it ties quality to compensation and enables farmers to sell quality product at scale.
“Beyond pricing stability, the most powerful outcome of the Thrive model is the alignment that is created between the farmer and retail consumers,” Jones said. “Increased quality allows sales at higher price points, and with predictable pricing structures, it is now worth farmers making investments of time and money to learn more about farming, which can increase both yield and quality. These both translate into more income, which entirely changes the paradigm they have historically been tied to.”
Various companies in both the specialty chocolate and specialty coffee realms also are working on getting both retail and wholesale customers to adjust their price expectations and to stop thinking of “farmers” as a homogenous group.
“What’s best for the farmers I work with in the Philippines may not be the best for the farmers in Tanzania or the farmers in Ecuador,” Askinosie said. “They’re not the same people. They’re not the same culturally, they’re not experiencing the same degree of poverty, they may have different religious backgrounds that affect what they want and need. Of course we can make some basic assumptions – people need clean water, for example – but it’s a mistake I think to not include farmers in the discussion about what’s best for them.”
Both Askinosie and Giuliano point to the need to educate the consumer market and push retail prices up further, too. “One thing everyone agrees on in coffee is that it’s too cheap,” Giuliano said. “And no consumer feels that way. The $20 bag of coffee from Blue Bottle is probably, in the long term, an unsustainably low price.”
Coffee already saw a shift in consumers’ willingness to pay more for coffee when Starbucks took the industry by storm, and Askinosie is hoping for a similar phenomenon in chocolate. “You can say what you want about Starbucks, but they had the wherewithal to do some things that moved the needle in the coffee market,” he said. “I firmly believe that in my lifetime we’ll see a $25 chocolate bar that the specialty consumer market will be willing to pay for.”
At the same time, specialty manufacturers are intensely aware of creating an access issue on the consumer side as they balance the cost of production with sales prices for farmers. The ultimate solution is likely a mixture of growth in the specialty markets and more realistic pricing in the commodity markets.
“There are a lot of people doing great things,” Sethi said. “We just haven’t developed a model that captures everything. We can’t. We prioritize in any given moment what’s important to us. If you’re saving the rainforest, you can’t also be hyper-focused on taste. You can try, but one priority will edge out the other. It has to.”
The Fair World Project has released an analysis of the trading and transparency practices of some of America’s leading roasters, with some surprising and potentially controversial results.
Australia Post commented on your post. |
Australia Post wrote: "Hi Hugh, I can certainly understand your concern when the cost of postage has increased by such a large amount and I would like to look further into this for you today. Hugh, to allow me to see why it has increased so much could you please advise of the weight of the item you are sending, and the postcodes it was going to/from? I look forward to hearing from you. Kim" |
Australia Post commented on your post. |
Australia Post wrote: "Hi Hugh, Thank you for getting back to me so quickly with that information. Regrettably, to post an item between the areas in which you have mentioned is now $49.90. The decision to remove the BX4 boxes from the flat rate postage was not a decision made easily. The BX4 was removed as sales of this product have been low. I am sorry for any inconvenience this has caused. Kim" |